May 2015 Election Prediction (1)

For various reasons mostly related to energy I’m intending to spoil my ballot this election.

However I always like the opportunity to make a fool of myself by hazarding a prediction of the results.

The main factor which I’m taking into account which I doubt many people in the “establishment” press and forecasters will appreciate is the role of social media. This effectively removes previous “barriers” to electioneering that prevented small parties from competing with the larger ones.

So, in the past, the election was seen as a competition between the main establishment parties are portrayed by establishment broadcasters like BBC focussed on UK-wide establishment interests. So big-parties, big media big campaigns.

However this time the small parties will be campaigning, not through huge glossy posters nor quiet chats to a few select journalists, but this time by personal contact between supporters and potential supporters online.

So, I think the key election battlefield in this election will be between “establishment” parties and new parties. So, basically if UKIP do well, so will the greens and so will SNP the Welsh nationalists and probably a host of small independent candidates which no one outside their local area has heard about.

This makes the UKIP vote particularly difficult to predict. Some establishment media already predicting up to 40 votes. I’ve assumed half this vote. But as the UK electoral system means a very small increase in percentage of votes can dramatically increase party support from 50-150. If it were near the 40 seat level, they might easily get over one hundred seats. And if that happened it would be at the expense of both Labour and Tory. If however UKIP are starting to get above 100, then as this is a “non-establishment” surge, we are likely to see Lab, Tory, Liberal doing very badly and other parties all surging.

The critical factor is the “facebook effect” – just how important will be those face to face contacts on social media compared to traditional media. Not only that, but will the internet allow small parties to focus national resources on a few seats and so deliver far more seats than would normally be possible when media was dominated by national tv & papers. There’s a lot going for smaller parties and not much against so the following could be a dramatic underestimate.

TORY 265 (245-275)
LAB 255 (245-265)
SNP 55 (45-55)
LibDem 25 (15-30)
UKIP 20 (10-40)
Green 10 (5-15)
Others ~20-35

You need 325 seats to form a majority. So, the only two parties are:
Tory-SNP (unlikely)


  • Social media has dramatically brought down the cost of campaigning meaning that money is far less important than enthusiastic supporters. So I think all smaller parties will do better at expense of larger ones.
  • UKIP in particular is a dark horse, because they’ve never stood at this level of support and because it doesn’t take a lot of extra support to go from 50-150 seats.
  • SNP really can’t do much better than they are now, so they can only really go down.
  • UKIP & Green being a new options at a time of “austerity” will benefit from the election coverage and are likely to do better as the campaign progresses.
  • Libdems being old and being lumped with being “in power” will struggle.
  • Also in the present climate and with new social media making it easier to campaign at the local level I think we’ll see local campaigns deliver a handful of independents around local issues.

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83AD Calgacus speaks to the Union for the Freedom of all Britain

I’ve been very surprised that no one seems to mentioned this really important speech by the first Briton of Scotland to have their words recorded almost 2000 years ago. So, I thought I would introduce it to you and have reproduced the first section in full below. In it, Calgacus, a Caledonian (who probably lived somewhere near Inverness) is addressing his troops before the Battle of Mons Graupius fought against the Roman aggressor (or perhaps as we might now call them “EU”).

To set the scene. It is 83 or 84AD. For just over a century, the Romans had been steadily moving north, first through Gaul (France) and then through Britain enslaving whole populations. Not long before this battle, the Romans had brutally treated Boudica raping her daughters causing the Icenii revolt. And this Roman brutality was not reserved only for Britain. Like their treatment of the Icenii, in Palestine, the Romans had brutally killed or enslaved the whole population when they had risen up against them.

Now this horror had come to Northern Britain, driving before them a stream of refugees from the Roman empire who could recount these horrors in graphic details. Finally, they had reached Caledonia: literally “the last of the free”. And this was the last battle for British freedom, a huge battle and with some 50,000 combatants it is still arguably the largest battle on Scottish soil.

The Caledonian heartland was probably the fertile wheat growing plains of the Moray Firth. At first the Caledonians union had ventured out to confront the Romans, winning many victories and almost wiping out the Ninth Legion at a site near Brechin. But as the line of 1st century marching camps heading toward Elgin shows, the tables had been turned and now three Roman legions had pursed them back to their heartland.

From the speech we know this site was somewhere in view of the sea.  So, we can imagine the Caledonians, on a hill defending their territory (like Quarrelwood Hill beside Elgin which at the time was the only Road into Caledonia). Here some 30,000 people had formed a Union to stand up to the Roman army. Now with this union was in what was possibly its last fight, with the Roman army at their front a few miles across the level plain and the Roman fleet at their back on the sea behind them.

And this is what Calgacus said:

“Whenever I consider the origin of this war and the necessities of our position, I have a sure confidence that this day, and this union of yours, will be the beginning of freedom to the whole of Britain. To all of us slavery is a thing unknown; there are no lands beyond us, and even the sea is not safe, menaced as we are by a Roman fleet. And thus in war and battle, in which the brave find glory, even the coward will find safety. Former contests, in which, with varying fortune, the Romans were resisted, still left in us a last hope of succour, inasmuch as being the most renowned nation of Britain, dwelling in the very heart of the country, and out of sight of the shores of the conquered, we could keep even our eyes unpolluted by the contagion of slavery. To us who dwell on the uttermost confines of the earth and of freedom, this remote sanctuary of Britain’s glory has up to this time been a defence. Now, however, the furthest limits of Britain are thrown open, and the unknown always passes for the marvellous. But there are no tribes beyond us, nothing indeed but waves and rocks, and the yet more terrible Romans, from whose oppression escape is vainly sought by obedience and submission. Robbers of the world, having by their universal plunder exhausted the land, they rifle the deep. If the enemy be rich, they are rapacious; if he be poor, they lust for dominion; neither the east nor the west has been able to satisfy them. Alone among men they covet with equal eagerness poverty and riches. To robbery, slaughter, plunder, they give the lying name of empire; they make a desert and call it peace.”

For more info on Mons Graupius see

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In the 1690s the climate was colder and wetter. This had profound effects on Scotland because historians tell us that up to a quarter of the population died. There were literally dead lying about the streets and so it is little wonder that within 20 years the economic and population of a colder wetter climate forced Scots to union with England.

I was recently watching TV and came across a program about the Salem witches. Apparently the symptoms of the victims in 16901 were exactly what would be expected from Ergot fungus poisoning of wheat. A fungus that thrives in wetter conditions. And when they looked, they found that the majority of witch executions occurred in areas growing Rye. Which put together with the known colder wetter conditions in Scotland, suggests that Ergot fungus poisoning was possibly responsible for Witch persecutions in Scotland and possibly many deaths were directly related to it.

But it seems the madness persists. Because in a country prone to the ravages of cold and wet – what are the politicians the world leaders in? Global warming alarmism! Yes! They concern themselves that the climate might get warmer – and presumably drier.

And this is the madness of the Scottish political class. Not a single one of them voted against the EU enforced “global warming” legislation. None of them have publicly acknowledged that all the forecasts were wrong and the climate has not warmed in more than 17 years and none of the Scottish press have done the job of a democratic media and made these facts known to the Scottish public.

In other words, we are all living in a make believe land in Scotland. Science – such as the science that tells us it is not currently warming and the so called “scientists” who predicted warming are nothing of the sort – is ignored in the dolally land of Scotland.

It is as if the whole of Scotland is even now suffering Ergot poisoning and afraid of evil demons and goblins. The reality, is that the demons and goblins are not from some far off place, they are instead the uneducated zealots who believe in some Nazi style Scottish master race, and no doubt if they got their way, they would create some Nazi style glorious Scotland. The only thing stopping them, is that unlike Germany which had the engineering skills to put their political hatred into action, in Scotland the political dogma is anti-industry and engineering and these hateful zealots wanting a Scottish fatherland will do nothing but bring economic ruin for us all.

Let’s put it this way – I want be putting my own money in any Scottish currency!

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Questions on Independence

To the Yes Campaign:

  1. Can you name me one scientist who is not employed by a government either directly or indirectly who believes in catastrophic global warming – or can you show me any evidence at all these “scientists” (because scientists they are not) can predict the climate and therefore correctly predicted the global warming pause.
  2. If  the scientific evidence is so overwhelmingly against these “scientists” being able to predict the climate, why are you forcing Scots, in one of the colder nations on earth, to pay more than the English toward stopping global WARMING. HAVE YOU GONE MAD?
  3. Why is it right that just because I accept the scientific evidence showing no recent warming – that I am denied any right to see my MSP? In contrast, Jo Swinson, my MP is just as vehment that the world is heading toward doomsday (aka the snowdrops might come out a bit earlier) – but she has done her job and treated me fairly as a constituent.

To the No Campaign

  1. Name me one “British” institution that is located in Scotland (by rights about 10% should be here)

British Parliament, British Library, British Museum, British Monarchy, MI5, MIG, GCHQ, All those “British” weapons research facilities around London, British Broadcasting company, British Met Office, British Army, British Navy, British Airforce – are any of these HQ’d in Scotland with their purchasing/procurement decisions made in Scotland – favouring local Scottish companies. Then there was the old “British Railway”, the “British Airways”, the “(British)Bank of England”, British Gas, British Geological Survey

… the only thing that makes these “British” is that Scots pay for them and the English (almost exclusively in London) get the benefit.

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UKIP Scotland not functioning due to ‘special measures’

This party is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-party!!

This party is no more! He has ceased to be! ‘E’s expired and gone to meet ‘is maker! ‘E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, ‘e rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed ‘im to the perch ‘e’d be pushing up the daisies! ‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig! ‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-party!!

Just come back from a long summer holiday. After sorting out a few other things I finally had a look to see what UKIP Scotland had been up to.

UKIP Scotland not functioning due to ‘special measures’

Whilst the article in the Herald is bad enough, the fact that it simple restates the appalling situation of the party in Scotland without any apparent change is much worse, because it shows that nothing whatsoever has changed.

There are now two remaining tests for the “party” before I declare it to be dead. These are:

  1. If as promised, they contributes to the referendum debate in any meaningful way (something that looks increasingly unlikely)
  2. Whether Farage comes up to Scotland before the referendum.


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I’ve yet to hear Coburn say anything of consequence

Looking for something interesting to read I thought I would catch up with UKIP’s meteoric rise to stardom after the MEP election. There was virtually nothing and almost the only recent thing about UKIP in Scotland was this letter (in response to another):

Sunday 8 June 2014

I’ve yet to hear David Coburn (Scotland’s first Ukip MEP) say anything of consequence. I wonder how many of his voters realise he lives in London? Properties in his street change hands for £4 million. His election was an alarming outcome.

Jane Bullock




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J.K.Rowling statement (readable)

Just been trying to read the Statement by JK Rowling , but something is wrong with the page formatting – the easiest way to read it was to copy and past the raw html.

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  • J.K. Rowling explains why she is supporting the Better Together Campaign

    Before you read the following, please be warned that it’s probably of interest only to people who live in Scotland or the UK (and not all of them!)  If you read on regardless, you need to know that there is going to be a referendum on 18th September on whether or not Scotland should leave the United Kingdom.  If you’re only vaguely interested, or pressed for time, there’s a mention of Death Eaters in paragraph 5.
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With #indyref there will be huge interest in the discovery of the battle of Mons Graupius. So I am setting up a new website:

So, blogging will be light.

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Mons Graupius and #Indyref

19th century sketch of Calgacus delivering his speech to the Caledonians.

19th century sketch of Calgacus delivering his speech to the Caledonians.

Mons Graupius is in my mind undoubtedly the iconic battle of “Scottish” freedom. Tacitus records the first words of any Scot giving a speech that undoubtedly inspired the Declaration of Arbroath as well as the American declaration of Independence.

Whenever I consider the origin of this war and the necessities of our position, I have a sure confidence that this day, and this union of yours, will be the beginning of freedom to the whole of Britain.

Given that Mons Graupius symbolises the original call for freedom and independence from Rome, this new discovery confirming the field marks of the Roman marching camp overlooking the hill of “Quarrel wood” could not have happened at a more politically charged time.

Indeed, we must not forget the context of the original speech speech was also highly charged nor that the discoverer (Mike Haseler) could be seen as politically controversial.

A message from the past? Continue reading

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Iconic Caledonian battle of Mons Graupius located.

In early 2013 I revealed research I had carried out into the potential location of the battle of Mons Graupius. News of this discovery was carried in several newspapers including the Northern Scot and Glasgow Herald:

Archaeologist claims to have located site of Roman battle

New Evidence

New Evidence

Unfortunately, without even visiting the site, this research was dismissed as being “geological” features by key people in the archaeological community. I can now reveal more evidence that cannot be so easily dismissed. To recap, the key piece of evidence which confirmed this as a likely site of Mons Graupius was what appeared to be a double ditch on aerial photography. (See original article reproduced below.) More importantly, not only did the site of this double ditch fit the location of the fort recorded in the Roman account, but as the ditch pointed toward the site of “Quarrel Hill” near Elgin (the likely position of the Caledonians), this appeared to be very strong evidence that this must be the battle site. However, despite the strong evidence, it was dismissed without even so much as a site visit. But new evidence has now come to light in another aerial photograph which shows the markings are not geological markings. This new aerial photograph shows a hidden second SE corner to the fort. Like the SE corner, this is also a double ditch (typical of a Roman fort) and it is also curved. This is the evidence I needed as whilst one corner might just be geological, because it is almost inconceivable that two very similar curved corners would be produced by geological process. Taken together with an old field boundary perpendicular to the original ditch which I now think marks the northern edge of the site, this appears to define the complete outline of the Roman camp as shown below.

Original field markings in colour with new evidence showing corner in grey. Red dotted line shows likely extent of fort.

Original field markings in colour with new evidence showing corner in grey. Red dotted line shows likely extent of fort.

From this we can for the first time estimate the size of the fort at Elgin. If this is the right size it means a proper investigation cannot be delayed. We can estimate the size the fort needed to be from the size of the Roman Army that Agricola brought north in 79 AD. To do this we can compare this fort with a similar marching camp at Pathhead in the Lothians. This Camp measures 530m from north-west to southeast by 390m transversely, enclosing 20.5ha (just over 50 acres). The field markings at Elgin measure 360m wide west to east. If the old boundary fence is the northern boundary as I suggest, the size of this fort north to south is around 630m making the whole fort about 23ha (just under 57acres) which is very close to that of Pathhead. Conclusion: This additional evidence revealing the SE corner makes it very unlikely that the markings of a double ditch could be “geological” as originally suggested. There is now multiple strand of compelling evidence in terms of size, shape and orientation which are consistent with a Roman fort fitting the account of the battle of Mons Graupius at Quarrel Hill. It is now imperative that a proper field survey is undertaken as soon as possible. (original Article below) Acknowledgement – the BBC is not my favourite broadcaster, so much to my disgust, I should acknowledge that it was while watching a BBC 4 program on the Romans and the use of aerial photography that I was encouraged to have another look for evidence confirming the site. Also inspiration for the original identification came from Dr Alan Leslie and all the gang at Glasgow. Continue reading


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