The election result: a UKIP Twittterslide

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UKIP lady explaining the finer details of UKIP policy to a #racist #bigot.

I’m getting very fed up with #UKIP!!

… because UKIP are generating so much enthusiasm and as a result so many tweets that I just can’t read them. No sooner have I started to read one and the next tweet pops up; clicking on this image was a bit like “wackum” – trying to click on the post before it moved.

They are getting far more tweets even than their closest rival Labour. So, based on twitter, UKIP are in for a landslide. The only party that even looks vaguely like matching UKIP is labour and they are only getting one tweet for every two of UKIP.

If this were a general election, one would have to say that UKIP look like the  next government. I know that sounds insane, given that they haven’t even got one MP, but there is no doubt that UKIP have won the twitter wars.

Indeed, I’m not sure it’s even a #labour vs. #ukip twitter battle, its more a #hatefest #paid-lobbyist #cushypublicsectorfearingforjob #pc_correct #eu #bbc  versus #ukip. Looking at the #hatefest tweets many are clearly from orchestrated campaigns of #hate. It seems that anyone and everyone with a vested interest in the stiffling PC culture that has done so much to destroy Britain is desperately tweeting in what looks like a proverbial “clinging on with the finger nails” type of last-ditch attempt to hang on to that world where only their view was allowed to be heard or expressed and only they could be employed to express them.

And there is only one club in this #hatefest against #UKIP. It’s a very tired club, its totally out of place and it has certainly see better days. It’s just the boring old they must be #racist for daring to discuss immigration. BORING!!!

Well to those in this #hatefest, I have a simple message: “get over it! The sane sensible people of Britain are no longer intimidated by you”. It is like water off a #ducks back because none of this #hatefest dirt is sticking. And that is clearly making the #hatefest #bbc #pc_correct tweeters all the more #hateful and #hypocritical.

Who am I voting for

However, I shouldn’t be distracted by these twits.

Like most previous elections I am more certain why I don’t want to vote for any political party rather than persuaded that I should vote for any. I’m certainly not voting SNP because my MSP is a bigot who will not even talk to me about constituency issues because I dared to outline the scientific evidence against doomsday global warming hysteria. And there is much much more.

Labour – I was very impressed with Katherine the lady on Newsnight. Unfortunately, I cannot possibly vote for a party that put the UK into massive debt and then left a joking note about it.

LibDems – I might once have supported them, but they will not listen to the science on climate and are just daft about Europe.

Tories – if Murdo Fraser were standing he would get my vote. He isn’t and I was not impressed by the guy who was on Newsnight.

Greens – aren’t green but Scottish socialists – and not very good at that!

UKIP – I’m against the EU, they are the only party that has any enthusiasm for this election and they stand for what I believe about leaving the EU (or at least a very different relationship other than being part of a superstate). On the down side – I’m not at all happy with the way the English party (mis)behaved in Scotland. However, let’s be honest, all political parties are probably just as grotesque when viewed up close.

So, the final choice is just a bit reluctantly: UKIP

A twitterslide

And now, for the twitterslide. I have had to accept today that UKIP have a level of support which I have never seen before or to be accurate – it’s the disparity of interest in UKIP versus any other party that is so new. There is a real enthusiasm about UKIP which is completely missing from other parties. As a result I’ve been trying to work out what that means for the result. If that twitterslide were converted into electoral support, I think UKIP have massive enthusiasm amongst its supporters whilst those of almost every other party are demoralised and really not interested in these elections.

As such, I can see that whilst other parties get only perhaps the 33% turnout that is typical of EU elections, UKIP may get nearer to 50% turnout. If true, that means that UKIP in Scotland could be heading for around 17% of the vote. As that is not “taking votes away” from any other party but getting their own voters to turn out, the votes of other parties will be the same, just more UKIP voters will turn out. This still means the 3:2:1 split in the MEP seats is the most likely outcome with UKIP now almost certain to get the last MEP seat rather than the Tories.

However rather than 17%, I would prefer to be more cautious and take the mid point between what twitter suggests as an enthusiastic turnout and what the polls suggest as the voter intention. So I will put a prediction that the final UKIP vote in Scotland at around to 12-16%. All the other parties will go down, leaving the Tories at around 11-12%, labour around 26-28% and SNP around 33-35%

Could UKIP votes go evenhigher?

I have twice found that I have been underestimating the UKIP support. The first was to assume that UKIP had no chance at all of getting an MEP in Scotland, the second was to assume that what I saw of the Scottish party is what the electorate (or twitterarti) would see. I do not think anybody really knows how the clearly overwhelming interest and support on twitter translates to votes.  Moreover there is no specific hashtag for UKIP Scotland or Labour Scotland. So how can I tell whether the dreary performance of the SNP (only rivalled by Tories) will translate into a dreary performance at the polls?

Yes UKIP could go higher – they could also be lower. I strongly doubt that even in the best case scenario that they could get two MEPs. But even the fact I am considering it now, shows that it is not an impossibility.

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1 Comment

Filed under Scottish Politics

One response to “The election result: a UKIP Twittterslide

  1. David Nelson

    “they stand for what I believe about leaving the EU (or at least a very different relationship other than being part of a superstate)”

    What superstate is this?

    Honestly, I’m not particularly pro-EU (and I’m certainly not pro-superstate), but as someone with some moderate experience in the subject I see absolutely no relation between what the EU actually is and how UKIP portray it.

    The vast majority of policy areas – criminal justice, taxation, foreign policy, education, health – are still retained at Westminster. UKIP seem intent on convincing us that the integration process has gone much further than it actually has by trotting out this hopelessly misleading soundbite about “75% of our laws” coming from Brussels, but that statistic has always been completely disingenuous. You don’t measure importance by quantity – and that’s even if we want to take the figure at face value, ignoring the fact that it’s derived from a rather odd semi-approximation of a German estimate from years ago.

    I have no love of European federalism, but that’s simply not what the EU is driven by. It’s still primarily geared toward the running of the single market (something we were the key players in creating and something which we have a key national interest in continuing to influence). Rather than inventing entertaining fictions about a clique of bureaucrats dictating all our laws to us, I’d rather we deal with the EU as it actually is – a far from perfect, but important vehicle for managing the single market, that we’d have to deal with one way or another whether we’re members or not. That’s why every UK prime minister in recent history, even ardent Eurosceptics like Thatcher, have supported staying in: not from a love of European federalism, but simply because it makes sense pragmatically.

    I appreciate getting caught up in the UKIP bandwagon is entertaining, but it’s not real world politics. The Tories are at least living in reality and realise you can’t have a policy that simply consists of ripping everything to shreds and hoping it all works itself out. Politics is only that simple when you’re shouting from the side-lines.

    Like

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