Detailed Vote Analysis

After reading John Curtice’s blog post in which he appears to have been unable to admit that UKIP might get an MEP, I decided to check out his data . And yes, he has completely ignored the fact that UKIP have a very strong chance of gaining a seat in Scotland at the expense of either the Tories or SNP, particularly as he doesn’t include the COMRES poll that which showed UKIP level pegging with the Tories.

However, as a true skeptic, I wanted to check his analysis based on the data so this is my workings.

His polls show that since April the main parties have had the following range of support.

Tory 11-13% (steady)
UKIP 7-10% (rising)
Labour 26-30%
SNP 33-39%

Fourth Seat

Based on these figures the first three MEP seats will clear go SNP (2), Lab (1). At this point, using the D’Hondt method, the effective ranking after the first three seats will be:
Tory 11-13% (/1)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 13-15% (/2)
SNP 11% – 13% (/3)

Fifth Seat

This gives three potential winners of the fourth MEP: Labour, SNP, Tory. Which will then mean the context for the fifth MEP (depending who wins the fourth) will be as follows:

Labour win (most likely)
SNP win Tory win (Least likely)
Tory 11-13% (/1)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 8.6%-10% (/3)
SNP 11% – 13% (/3)
Tory 11-13% (/1)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 13-15% (/2)
SNP 8.3% – 9.8% (/4)
Tory 5.5-6.5% (/2)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 13-15% (/2)
SNP 11% – 13% (/3)
Next Potential winner SNP or Tory
at 11-13%
Next Winner: Labour, or Tory
13-15%
Next Winner Labour or SNP
13-15%

Last Seat

So, the possible positions going into the sixth and last MEP and the effect on the percentages are:

SNP (3), Lab(2) (most likely)
SNP (2), Lab(2), Tory (1) SNP (3), Lab(1), Tory (1)  (least likely)
Tory 11-13% (/1)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 8.6%-10% (/3)
SNP 8.3% – 9.8% (/4)
Tory 5.5-6.5% (/2)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 8.6%-10% (/3)
SNP 11% – 13% (/3)
Tory 5.5-6.5% (/2)
UKIP 7-10% (/1)
Labour 13-15% (/2)
SNP 8.3% – 9.8% (/4)
Next winner Tory, (11-13%)
with a close race between UKIP
And labour (<10%)
Next Winner: SNP (11-13%)
with a close race between UKIP
And labour
(<10%)
Next Winner Labour (13-15%)
with a close race between UKIP
And SNP
(<10%)

Most likely Outcome

Which in all cases (based on John Curtices figures) gives a most likely final result of:

SNP (3), Labour (2), Tory (1)

The Margin for UKIP  (11% >+1%)

However the margin for UKIP to win is only 1-3% and with the COMRES poll showing 12%, the 11-13% margin to overturn this result is far too small to rule out UKIP. If UKIP vote did rise, this gives the potential outcomes as

@UKIP 11%
SNP (3) Lab (2) UKIP (1)  (most likely)
orSNP (2), Lab (2), Tory(1), UKIP (1)

@UKIP 13%
SNP(3), Lab (1), Tory (1), UKIP (1) (very unlikely)

If UKIP win MEP

The two most likely scenarios if UKIP get above 11% of the vote are:-

  1. UKIP gain seat in race with Tories
    (Tory(1)+UKIP (0) -> Tory (0)+UKIP(1))
    result: SNP(3), Lab (2), UKIP (1)
  2. UKIP gain seat in race with SNP
    (SNP(3)+UKIP (0) -> SNP (2)+UKIP (1))
    result: SNP(2), Lab (2), Tory(1), UKIP (1)

The Margin for Labour  (33% >+3%)

The other race for the last MEP seat is for labour. This starts to be a possibility at 33% when it either beats the SNP vote outright, or it gets 3x the Tory (or UKIP) vote

The two most likely scenarios if Labour get above 33% of the vote are:-

  1. Labour gain seat in race with Tories
    (Tory(1)+Lab (2) -> Tory (0)+Lab(3))
    result: SNP(3), Lab (3)
  2. Labour gain seat in race with SNP
    (SNP(3)+Lab (2) -> SNP (2)+Lab (3))
    result: SNP(2), Lab (3),  Tory(1)

 Summary

The UKIP vote has risen substantially to around 10%, and so a further rise looks possible.

In order to win, labour need to get around 33-39% to either beat the SNP, or get 3x of the votes of the Tories. Whilst proportionately this is the same increase as required by UKIP, as an absolutely proportion it is around 3% additional swing compared to its best figure compared to the 1% additional swing for UKIP.

The big potential losers are SNP or Tory – both of whom are in government (LidDem looking extremely unlikely to get any seat in Scotland)

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2 Comments

Filed under Scottish Politics

2 responses to “Detailed Vote Analysis

  1. David Nelson

    I think this is a reasonable analysis, but it seems pretty off base with respect to Curtice. My reading of his article is that UKIP does have a chance of winning a seat, but it’s still unlikely they will given the current polling. I think that’s a fair assessment and I’m not sure why it’s prompted a comment such as “he has completely ignored the fact that UKIP have a very strong chance of gaining a seat in Scotland at the expense of either the Tories or SNP”.

    Like

  2. Pingback: Analysis of Scottish Voting | Scottish Independent People

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