Latest Poll: Scottish UKIP level pegging Toires

The following is the Comres poll weighted by expected turnout.

33% SNP
30% LAB
12% #UKIP
12% CON
6% LD
5% GRN
2% OTHER

This compares with the previous poll as follows (with percentage change since then in brackets)

SNP 37.2% (-4%), Lab 26.4% (+4%), Con 13.0% (-1%), UKIP 10.4% (+2%) , LD  6.1%, Grn  6.1% (-1%)

Whilst the biggest change was a drop by the SNP and gain for labour, this largely reverses the change seen in that last poll from previous ones leaving SNP likely to get three MEPs to Labour’s 2. So, the real interest is in the UKIP-Tory race for the last MEP.

Previous polls (UKIP predicted to gain MEP?, UKIP v. Tories – now too close to call) showed UKIP in Scotland having a dramatic rise from about 4% and looking as if they could overtake the Tories by election day. But after their vote fell in the last poll I thought this surge might have ended leaving them just short of a seat. Now, however, we have the first poll showing them level pegging. This is not only a huge psychological boost to UKIP and a moral eating for the Tories, it also means that even a very small swing (and certainly smaller than the error of such polls of about 2-3%) could put UKIP in the lead in Scotland meaning they would overtake the Tories to get the last allocated MEP seat (after the first 5 are split between Labour and SNP).

As the Lib Dems are almost certain to lose their MEP, this would leave the governing coalition in the English parliament without a single MEP in Scotland – just months before the independent poll.

Who will win?

Yesterday, I was talking to another political nerd who reminded me that even the best poll can be wrong and that there can be a huge jump between what people say they will do and what they actually do in the voting booth. Given the vitriolic and unjustified attacks on UKIP, it is very likely many UKIP supporters would not admit it even to a pollster.

Moreover UKIP did do a lot better than I expected on Newsnight (Newsnight debate).

At this point, given the performance so far, I would say that UKIP might just have it. But it is far too close really to say.

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1 Comment

Filed under Scottish Politics

One response to “Latest Poll: Scottish UKIP level pegging Toires

  1. Pingback: Analysis of Scottish Voting | Scottish Independent People

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