UKIP v. Tories – now too close to call

Checking today, I notice that on 22nd April there was another poll which again gave UKIP 10%, thus confirming that their level of support had risen from 4% in January but not showing any further rise since the previous poll that month.

This confirms that the previous trend showing UKIP support was at about 2% per month was real and if it were to continue (all other things are equal) it would suggest a final level of UKIP support in Scotland of about 12% by election day. However the same poll also showed that the Tory Scottish vote, after dipping down from 13% to 11%, rose from back up to 12%. (The losers were SNP and Labour.)

But as well as the UKIP – Tory race for last place, much to my surprise a fight has also developed between the front two as the SNP vote dropped to 33% whilst labour rose to 31%. Is this a one off statistical aberration or part of a trend?

The SNP vote had dropped since March, so whilst not as dramatic it could be part of a trend. If so, labour could just take an MEP seat from the SNP causing the SNP a major upset ahead of the referendum. So, if this trend is confirmed, Labour may well take a seat from the SNP and it would them seem almost certain that Alex Salmond will lose the referendum vote.

So the key facts are these:

  • If the fall in SNP vote is confirmed by another opinion poll it looks like Labour could take a seat from the SNP.
  • The UKIP vote rose by about 2% a month
  • It is now at 10%
  • Tories are now at about 12%
  • Their battle is already too close to call.

The best estimate now is this: I cannot predict whether UKIP or the Tories votes will be higher as there is around a 2-3% margin of error. It is now far too close to call. The SNP are more than likely to win 3 MEPs and Labour 2, however if another poll puts margin between the two below 2%, then there is a confirmed trend and their race is also too close to call.

Other things to consider:

  • The Tories are much stronger than UKIP – this gives a huge advantage
  • UKIP are “new and novel” and in itself this may attract other voters
  • As the “incumbent” it is really up to the Tories to stop UKIP, but the Tories have singularly failed to land any punches on UKIP.
  • UKIP are notorious for getting themselves into trouble – the new team in Scotland will be lucky if that does not happen to them.

1 Comment

Filed under Scottish Politics

One response to “UKIP v. Tories – now too close to call

  1. Pingback: Latest Poll: Scottish UKIP level pegging Toires | Scottish Independent People

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