UKIP predicted to gain MEP?

There’s been a discussion about my previous post where I quoted a figure of 6% for UKIP in the Euro elections. In the comments it was suggested the figure was now nearer 12 to 18%, this seemed unlikely however I thought I should check this out. The best place seemed to be the blog What Scotland thinks. This shows UKIP with the following levels in recent opinion polls:

Jan 24th: 4%
Mar 21st: 6%
Apr 7th: 7%
Apr 16th: 10%

This does not suggest UKIP will get anywhere near 18% and even 12% would be stretching it. However it does show that the UKIP vote has been rising fairly linearly by about 2% a month. As such these figures suggests the best estimate of the final percentage is around 11-13% in the Euro elections.

Where are the votes coming from?

Looking at the figures from What Scotland thinks, as shown below the swing appears to be from the Green party and SNP. This is difficult to explain. Both the Greens and SNP are strongly pro-Euro-shacked-independence & strongly pro-wind. It would therefore appear unlikely that voters would switch directly to anti-Europe, anti-wind UKIP. It would seem more likely that UKIP are picking up Tory, Labour and perhaps Lib Dem votes whilst their places are being filled by those defecting from the SNP & green voters.

eurovotesSo what does this mean for the election

Based on the last poll on 16th April, the result will be as follows:

Party Result Change from 2009
SNP: 3 MEPs (+1)
Lab: 2 MEPs
Tory: 1 MEP
Lib Dem: 0 MEPs (-1)
UKIP, Greens & others: None

However, as the Tories only scrape in to get the last allocated MEP place with their 11% whilst UKIP was at 10%, if UKIP continue to rise by just another 1% or the Tories drop the same, then the result will be as follows

Party Result Change from 2009
SNP: 3 MEPs (+1)
Lab: 2 MEPs
Lib Dem: 0 MEPs (-1)
UKIP: 1 MEP (+1)
Greens, & others: None

And I see the Scotsman have come to the same conclusion.

Discussion

However a note of caution. Whilst the UKIP vote appears to be steadily rising, another possible interpretation is that the actual level of support is closer to the 6% to 7% as given in the previous two polls and that the latest ICM poll is an outlier. If the sample size is 1600, then the expected error is 2-3% so that the jump from 7% to 10% may be a pure statistical fluke. Moreover, looking at the general Scottish voting intentions from Election Calculus

scotpollgraph

Those intending voting for UKIP were on a steady decline from December last year till March (the last poll they have).

Conclusion

I hate to say it but there is now a good chance I was wrong when I said UKIP were unlikely to win a seat (at least in retrospect). Based on the data available I would estimate around 40-50% chance or evenly balanced but slightly less than likely that UKIP will win a seat. However it is very close – far too close to call, and if another poll comes in near future with around 10% or higher confirming the rise, then it will be more than likely that UKIP will win a Scottish MEP seat.

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5 Comments

Filed under Scottish Politics

5 responses to “UKIP predicted to gain MEP?

  1. Kris

    UKIPScotland rocks!
    Now live in Swansea, where UKIP is doing very well, thank you. Wales is a UKIP-friendly nation. God bless UKIP.

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  2. neilfutureboy

    To replace the Tories would be a magnificent result (or according to viewpoint an appalling one for the ConDemGreens). All the moreso since we are being censored by the state media – on this basis a “balanced” BBC would be interviewing a Scottish UKIPer 30% as often as an SNP.

    Close correlation between the fall in SNP support and the rise in UKIP’s. In the short term policy can be overestimated as the reason for people voting and much SNP support comes from them being seen to be political outsiders (a clever trick when they are in power) which may now be failing them. The Green/LD vote is now so small that even if a proportion of their votes were moving directly to us it is unlikely it would help us much.

    Whatever our opinion of the current appointed boss (he says I am “wine bar chatteratti” but I will not be so undiplomatic as to respond) UKIP is the game in town and reinventing it would waste years.

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    • Neil, the BBC and the rest of the political establishment in Scotland have been trying to pretend UKIP does not exist. Now, at east the Tories will start attacking because – well let’s put it this way, if Ruth Davidson loses this seat I doubt she’ll be leader at the next general election.

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  3. Pingback: If UKIP win a seat, can Ruth ? remain Tory Leader? | Scottish Independent People

  4. Pingback: Latest Poll: Scottish UKIP level pegging Toires | Scottish Independent People

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