UKIP unlikely to get Scottish MEP

Based on a recent poll in a Scottish paper (http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/new-poll-snp-ahead-of-scottish-labour-in-eu-elections.1395658675), the likely result of the EU election is as follows:

Party Percent MEPs
SNP 41% 4
labour 29% 3
Tory 13% 1
UKIP 6% 0
Lib Dem 5% 0
Advertisements

9 Comments

Filed under Scottish Politics

9 responses to “UKIP unlikely to get Scottish MEP

  1. Pingback: A new Scottish right of centre party? | Scottish Independent People

  2. What nonsense. Firstly the media source quoted is the avowedly anti-UKIP and pro-SNP ‘Herald’ so hardly unbiased. Secondly, the percentage figures are woefully outdated and UKIP are regularly polling at between 13-17% in Scotland – with only 10% or a gain of 4% required to take an MEP seat. Thirdly, who in their right mind would believe if UKIP the third mainstream party of British politics with 20yrs of national brand recognition and a full support machine finds it hard breaking through in Scotland any new minnow party has a hope in hell. Politics is a long term game and UKIP’s breakthrough in Scotland as the UK is simply
    a matter of time.

    Like

    • You are very right about the Herald, however as virtually the only DNM (dinosaur NewsMedia) coverage has been in the Herald, UKIP have not been getting good media coverage lately.

      On the plus side UKIP will get English DNM coverage, on the negative, the level of activist activity has dropped off markedly since Stirling. The reason this is important is because all the other parties will get a grass-roots boost from their activist base toward the election and if UKIP doesn’t have the activist base its vote will drop markedly.

      Like

      • Again incorrect I’m afraid. The amount of as you call it DNM coverage has been well above previous average with recent full page articles in both the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Post plus a number of pieces in the Scotsman, Telegraph, Evening Times, Evening News and even a positive campaign launch report in the Herald – at the Torquay conference we distributed print outs of at least five launch pieces alone.
        In addition we have had extensive visual media coverage including a first ever full segment on Sunday Politics Scotland plus several David Coburn interviews have gone out so far with many more pre-recorded in the can still to air – hardly a lack of coverage and i can attest much more than ever before in Scotland.
        I must of course remind you that in the modern media age there is no such thing as bad publicity but merely media events to be managed to ones advantage.
        As to the comment ‘activist activity has dropped off markedly since Stirling’ I must ask where such nonsense comes from ? (Stirling sideshow spoiler meeting organisors most probably). If you would care to pop along to any of our meetings you would see activism has in fact increased on previous levels, recent meetings in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee have been better attended by members than I have ever seen in my period of membership – bottom line is people can see a change in approach and positive movement so are willing to get their boots out on the ground again.
        I urge every member and supporter to maintain contact with the official team and help us promote the campaign – the only thing that will stop UKIP securing an MEP seat in Scotland is a continuation of internal factionalism and undermining naysaying from those pursuing personal agendas at whose feet the blame will squarely lie if we don’t have an MEP come May.

        Like

  3. Connor

    That would be a very impressive result, given Scotland only has six seats in the European Parliament.

    Like

  4. A veru impresive result indeed Connor. Bearing in mind the Herald and YouGov polls are heavily slanted against UKIP a showing of 6% and 10% respectively is decent. However when taken across all recent polls UKIP in Scotland are polling at between 12-18%. We must also add in that the majority of pundits and commentators are predicting we could not only take the Lib-Dem seat but possibly even unseat the Tory. I have to say we are growing increasingly confident based not only on improving polls and media commentary but more importantly on the feedback being recieved during campaigning at public meetings and walkabouts etc, this is the most intensive and extensive campaign ever mounted by UKIP Scotland and it looks like support is growing by the day. Here’s to May 22nd.

    Like

    • Where do you get the 12-18% because the only figure I’ve seen since the 6% mentioned was one at 10%?

      Like

      • I believe the 18% is from the youGov/cumulus Sunday Times poll though may have been Brietbart. ComRes latest also sitting on 12%. Both relate to Scotland alone. UK wide polling is currently sitting at around 31%. With so many polls coming out it’s virtually impossible to keep up but we haven’t been below 10-12% since start of official UK campaign. Interesting to note is the Green party who have been trying to promote themselves as our rival for the MEP seat are dropping like a stone and currently polling around 4% so utterly irrelevant in this contest and deluding themselves. Reality is the Lib-Dem seat is as we keep hearing from everyone in the know ‘toast’ and it is likely the result will either be as present plus UKIP or 3x SNP + 2x Lab + 1x Tory/UKIP with it looking increasingly like we may topple the Tory. Absolutely worst case scenario for those of a defeatist disposition is should we not secure a seat we will on current evidence at least double our 2009 percentage in Scotland. Bottom line is
        the new Scottish management team approach is working and UKIP is now rising in Scotland.

        Like

  5. Pingback: UKIP predicted to gain MEP. | Scottish Independent People

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s